PATNA, November 11, 2025 – As the curtain officially falls on the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, the first big verdict is in, and it’s a shockwave across the political landscape. A near-unanimous wave of exit polls released tonight predicts that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a strong, comfortable majority, securing another term for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
If these projections hold true, the massive public engagement seen throughout the two phases—including a record-high voter turnout—has translated not into a vote for ‘Parivartan’ (change), but a strong endorsement of stability and governance.
The Numbers Speak: A Poll of Polls Summary
The collective predictions from major pollsters like Matrize, P-Marq, People’s Pulse, and Dainik Bhaskar place the NDA well above the 122-seat majority mark in the 243-member Assembly.1
| Pollster | NDA Seat Projection | Mahagathbandhan (MGB) Projection | Jan Suraaj Projection |
| Matrize | 147 – 167 | 70 – 90 | 0 – 2 |
| P-Marq | 142 – 162 | 80 – 98 | 1 – 4 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145 – 160 | 73 – 91 | 0 – 3 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 130 – 138 | 100 – 108 | 0 |
| POLL OF POLLS (Aggregate Estimate) | ~147 Seats | ~90 Seats | ~1 Seat |
Disclaimer: These are exit poll projections, which have historically been tricky in Bihar. The actual results will be counted and declared on November 14.
What Went Right for the NDA?
The exit polls suggest that the NDA successfully neutralized the opposition’s primary narratives. Key factors that appear to have swung the vote include:
- The Women’s Factor: Poll data strongly indicates that the state’s significant women voter base—a demographic frequently credited with supporting Nitish Kumar’s social schemes (like prohibition and conditional cash transfers)—consolidated firmly behind the NDA.2 Some polls suggested women voted for the NDA by a margin of over 2:1 compared to the MGB.
- The Stability Pitch: In a high-turnout election, voters seem to have favoured the promise of continuity and development over the risk associated with a generational leadership change.
- The Modi-Nitish Combination: The organisational machinery of the BJP, combined with the ground-level influence of the JD(U), proved to be an overwhelming electoral force, leveraging the popularity of the Prime Minister and the familiarity of the Chief Minister.
The Tejashwi Test: Momentum Without Seats?
For the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav, the projections are a significant disappointment. Despite a spirited, high-energy campaign focused on unemployment, anti-incumbency, and development, the numbers suggest their momentum failed to translate into a winning number of seats.
Interestingly, one poll suggested that Tejashwi Yadav still leads Nitish Kumar as the preferred Chief Minister candidate among voters, hinting at a strong personal image that simply wasn’t enough to overcome the structural strength of the NDA alliance.
Prashant Kishor’s Muted Debut
The predictions are particularly grim for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party. After a year of intense groundwork and a statewide Padyatra, the political debut has been largely muted, with all major polls predicting his party will win only a handful of seats, if any.3 The Bihar electorate appears to have stuck firmly to the traditional binary choices.
The next 48 hours will be a tense waiting game for all parties. While the exit polls paint a picture of an NDA celebration, Bihar’s history—most exit polls in 2020 incorrectly gave the edge to the MGB—means no political leader will truly rest easy until the last vote is counted on Thursday.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: When will the actual Bihar election results be announced?
The official counting of votes for all 243 Assembly constituencies will take place on Thursday, November 14, 2025. Results are typically announced throughout the day, with the final picture clear by the evening.
Q2: How accurate have Bihar exit polls been in the past?
Bihar has a notorious history of challenging exit poll accuracy:
- 2020 Assembly Election: Most exit polls incorrectly predicted a victory for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. The actual result was a narrow but clear win for the NDA (125 seats).
- 2015 Assembly Election: Most exit polls predicted a very close fight or an NDA victory. The actual result was a landslide victory for the then-Mahagathbandhan (RJD-JD(U)-Congress) with 178 seats—a major miss.
Due to the complex interplay of caste, community, and last-minute swings, poll predictions in Bihar must always be viewed with caution.
Q3: What is the magic number for forming the government in Bihar?
The Bihar Legislative Assembly has a total of 243 seats. A party or coalition needs to secure a simple majority of 122 seats to form the government.
Q4: What are the main alliances fighting this election?
The election is primarily a direct fight between two alliances:
- NDA (National Democratic Alliance): Led by the JD(U) (Nitish Kumar) and BJP, along with LJP (Ram Vilas).
- Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc): Led by the RJD (Tejashwi Yadav), along with Congress and Left parties.
